NFL Analysis5 min read

Jared Goff Falls to the Late Rounds Every Draft. He Keeps Finishing Top 8 Anyway.

A completion percentage and passer rating better than five of the seven QBs drafted ahead of him. And you can still get him late.

Pull up a stool, because I need to talk about Jared Goff for a second. Every single year, this man throws for elite volume, throws it accurately, throws it to a stacked room, and finishes the season as a legitimate top-8 fantasy quarterback. And every single year, he falls in drafts like he's somebody's backup plan. You can get this man in the late rounds. That should not be legal.

Let's look at the actual 2025 numbers, because the vibes on this guy are lying to you:

Jared Goff (Lions, 17 games)

4,564 passing yards, 34 passing TDs, 8 INTs, 68.0% completion, a 105.5 rating, 38 sacks taken, 297.1 fantasy points — QB8 among every quarterback in football. Not a sleeper. Not a streamer. A finished top-8 product that people still talk themselves out of drafting.

Here's the part that actually makes me want to flip a table: look at who finished ahead of him. Seven guys — Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, and Jalen Hurts — sat between Goff and the QB1 overall. Fine, they scored more points, I'm not here to argue with a final tally. But check the actual passing: Goff completed a higher percentage of his passes than Stafford (65.0%), Prescott (67.3%), Hurts (64.8%), Lawrence (60.9%), and Williams (58.1%) — five of the seven guys who outscored him. His 105.5 passer rating beats Allen (102.2), Prescott (99.5), Hurts (98.5), Lawrence (91.0), and Williams (90.1) — same five guys. He was throwing it better than most of the field that finished ahead of him. The gap is volume and touchdowns, not accuracy, not efficiency, not skill.

And it's not like he's doing this with nobody to throw to. Amon-Ra St. Brown went for 117 catches, 1,401 yards, and 11 touchdowns — a legitimate WR1 season by any measure. Next to him, Jameson Williams put up 1,117 yards and 7 more scores of his own. That's 2,518 combined receiving yards from Goff's top two targets alone, before you even get to a healthy Sam LaPorta chipping in on top of it. This isn't a guy managing a bad supporting cast into decent numbers. This is a guy with real weapons who just quietly delivers, year after year, and gets zero credit for it.

And "year after year" isn't a figure of speech here — that's the whole case. Since taking over in Detroit this isn't a one-good-season fluke. He's been in the 4,400-5,400 passing yard range with 29+ touchdowns basically every year running, no boom-bust, no scary injury history, no "buyer beware" asterisk. He just shows up, every single year, and does the job at an elite level. That kind of floor should make him a premium pick. Instead it makes him invisible.

QB8 production. A rating better than five of the seven guys picked ahead of him. And you can still get him after your league's already drafted three tight ends.

Look, I get it — he's not the highlight-reel scrambler, he's not the guy with the viral runs, and the ceiling talk always goes to the flashier arms. But fantasy football isn't a highlight reel, it's a points total, and Goff's points total says top-8 quarterback with a floor most of the guys above him don't have.

So next time your draft gets to the point where quarterbacks are an afterthought and Goff is still sitting there, do yourself a favor. Take the free QB8. Thank me later.

All 2025 stats exact. Draft accordingly. check Jared Goff's full 2025 stat line on AiOdds.io. Gamble responsibly, 21+ only.

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