NFL Analysis5 min read

These QBs Threw a Ton of Picks in 2025. Only One of Them Actually Paid For It.

Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold got away with it completely. J.J. McCarthy didn't.

Interceptions are supposed to be the great equalizer. Throw the ball to the other team enough times and your fantasy line takes the hit, your team loses the field-position battle, and everybody nods along like turnovers are turnovers. Except 2025 had a group of quarterbacks who all threw a pile of picks and split into two completely different outcomes — some walked away with career fantasy seasons anyway, and one walked away with a disaster. Let's look at who actually paid the price and who just shrugged it off.

The Guy Who Got Away With Absolutely Everything

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars, 17 games)

12 interceptions, 4,007 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 336.18 PPR fantasy points — the best fantasy season of every quarterback on this list, interceptions included.

Trevor Lawrence threw 12 picks — tied for the 5th-most among qualified passers — and it did not matter even a little. 29 touchdowns and 4,007 yards buried the mistakes so completely that he still posted the single best fantasy season in this group. Volume and touchdowns forgive a lot of sins.

The Guy Who Also Got Away With It

Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks, 17 games)

14 interceptions, 4,048 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 231.42 PPR fantasy points.

Sam Darnold threw even more picks than Lawrence — 14 of them — and still cracked 4,000 yards and 25 scores. Same story, different name: when the yardage and touchdown volume is real, the interceptions become background noise instead of a season-defining problem.

The One Who Actually Paid For It

J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings, 10 games)

12 interceptions, only 1,632 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, 57.6% completion rate, 72.6 passer rating, 123.38 PPR fantasy points — the worst fantasy season on this list, and it isn't particularly close.

Here's the honest caveat: J.J. McCarthy only played 10 games to Lawrence and Darnold's 17, so some of that raw gap is just fewer chances to rack up yardage. But look at the rate stats, because those don't care how many games he played: a 57.6% completion rate and a 72.6 passer rating are both brutal on their own, with or without the same 12 interceptions everyone else on this list also threw. Lawrence and Darnold turned picks into background noise. McCarthy turned them into the headline.

Same mistake count. Completely different verdict. Volume and efficiency are what actually decide it.

The Middle of the Pack

Geno Smith (Las Vegas Raiders, 15 games) — 17 INT

3,025 yards, 19 TD, 171.9 PPR points. The most interceptions of anyone on this list, and the fantasy output shows it — production wasn't big enough to fully paper over the turnovers this time.

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins, 14 games) — 15 INT

2,660 yards, 20 TD, 158.7 PPR points in a shortened season.

Justin Herbert (LA Chargers, 16 games) — 13 INT

3,727 yards, 26 TD, 284.88 PPR points — closer to the Lawrence/Darnold tier than the disaster tier.

Bo Nix (Denver Broncos, 17 games) — 11 INT

3,931 yards, 25 TD, 296.84 PPR points — the lightest interception total of the group, paired with a genuinely strong season.

Geno Smith is the one real cautionary tale in the middle tier — 17 picks is the most on this whole list, and unlike Lawrence or Darnold, his yardage and touchdown numbers weren't quite big enough to fully bury it. Tua Tagovailoa's 15 interceptions came in a season cut short to 14 games, which muddies a clean read on his rate of mistakes. Justin Herbert and Bo Nix both threw fewer picks and back it up with real production — they're not really part of the "turnover-prone" conversation so much as they are the control group.

What This Actually Tells You

Raw interception totals, on their own, tell you almost nothing about whether a quarterback actually hurt his team. Lawrence and Darnold prove that a big enough yardage-and-touchdown floor makes 12-to-14 interceptions a rounding error. McCarthy proves that the same 12 interceptions, paired with bad efficiency and a shortened season, can define a fantasy year for all the wrong reasons. If you're evaluating a turnover-prone quarterback for next season, don't stop at the pick count — check the completion rate and the touchdown total before you decide how scared to actually be.

All 2025 regular-season totals verified from official game logs, PPR scoring. check every quarterback's full 2025 stat line on AiOdds.io. Gamble responsibly, 21+ only.