Glossary

Projection

A model-driven estimate of a player’s expected outcome for a specific stat.

The posted threshold for a player stat (e.g., points, rebounds) used as a reference.

A concept that compares probability to price to estimate long-term value.

The probability suggested by an odds price after accounting for format (American/Decimal).

A common odds format using positive/negative numbers to indicate payouts and risk.

Odds format showing total return per 1 unit staked (e.g., 1.90).

A prop that pays based on whether a player goes over or under a listed stat line.

The built-in pricing margin on a line, reflected in odds.

Changes in the posted line or price over time.

The difference between a model’s projection and the actual outcome.

The expected spread of outcomes around a projection.

A label that summarizes how consistent a player’s outcomes have been recently.

The amount of data used to support a trend or projection.

How often a player is involved in a team’s offensive possessions.

The estimated number of possessions or plays in a game, impacting volume stats.

Context about opponent strength, defensive tendencies, or positional matchup.

Availability classification that can affect projections and expected roles.

A recent pattern in performance that may influence projections.

The median is the middle outcome; the mean is the average. They can differ in skewed distributions.

How two outcomes move together, important when combining props.

A combined bet where multiple legs must all succeed for a payout.

An alternate stat line offered at a different price.